Published: May-2020
Pages:134
Table:105
Figure:66
Report ID:UMHE20181
COVID-19 is essentially a respiratory ailment. It complicates some of the pre-existing health conditions in patients leading to death. During hospitalization a small percentage of patients require assisted breathing; i.e. these patients need ventilators. With the drastic increase in the overall case of COVID-19, demand for ventilators and other medical equipment has increased, this has created a gap between the demand and supply of ventilators and medical equipment’s across the majorly affected countries. Some estimates suggest that the demand for ventilators would reach to around 5-10% of the total cases. It is estimated that the world may need millions of ventilators in the coming weeks and months to deal with the COVID-19 situation. Government across the world has told ventilators manufacturers in their region to rapidly increase their production capacity to cope with the ever-increasing ventilator demands while some others have banned its export. While the COVID-19 cases are on the rise, it seems there are not enough ventilators available in hospitals right now for all of the potential patients who will be struck by the virus. The only way to avoid overwhelming intensive care units is with a mandatory lockdown that reduces social contact by 75%.
COVID-19 Cases, Globally
Around the world, strict lockdowns were imposed as the COVID-19 outbreak took hold. From Australia to Africa, from America to Europe and Asia, cities were shut down, restricting how often people were allowed to leave their homes and for what reason. India has asked 1.3 billion citizens of the country to stay home. As of April 30, 2020; the total coronavirus cases topped 3.3 million as more than 85,463 people contracted the infection in a single day on April 30th, 2020. The death toll worldwide as of 30th April stands at 233,830 and the number of recoveries at 1,039,061. Nearly 80% of the coronavirus cases are from the United States and Europe. The United States accounts for more than 33.1% while Europe is the most affected continent
Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention finding reveals that 80.9% of the total coronavirus cases were classified as mild while 13.8% and 4.7% were categorized as severe and critical respectively. A COVID-19 related lung injury is typically classified as acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Severely ill COVID-19 patients will need ventilators and so increasing cases, the demand for the ventilator is on the rise from across the world.
Ventilator shortages are a vital fact, as the epidemic of COVID-19 continues to deteriorate. Health ministries all over the world face the same dreadful equation. To prevent the deaths of tens of thousands, even hundreds of thousands, the manufacturers have already boosted their production to maximum by themselves. Today, they aren’t receiving orders from regular customers like hospitals only but also directly from the governments. For instance: Hamilton Medical, which usually produces about 15,000 of the devices a year, has ramped up production of about 40%, because of the COVID-19 outbreak.
Insights Presented in the Report
“Amongst Region, United States is expected to need more of ventilators amid COVID-19”
For a better understanding of the ventilator, demand trend arises due to COVID-19, a detailed analysis was conducted for the top 10 most affected regions including United States, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, Russia, Turkey, Iran, and India. The United States currently has the highest number of ventilators available and is expected to need even more than any other country across the world as the region acquires more than 33% of the global COVID-19 cases alone and the cases are still on the rise.
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Analyzing the historical availability, estimation of the current demand and forecasting the future demand of mechanical ventilators due to the sudden breakdown of COVID-19 in the most affected countries around the world were the three major steps undertaken to create and analyze the availability and demand of ventilator arises due to COVID-19 outbreak. Exhaustive secondary research was conducted to collect the historical numbers and estimate the current demand. Secondly, to validate these insights, numerous findings and assumptions were taken into consideration. Moreover, exhaustive primary interviews were also conducted; with healthcare experts and other industry experts across the value chain of the medical device sector. Post assumption and validation of the numbers through primary interviews, we employed a bottom-up approach to forecast the complete demand size of ventilators arises due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Detailed methodology is explained below:
Analysis of Historical Market Size
Step 1: In-Depth Study of Secondary Sources:
Detail secondary study was conducted to obtain the availability of several ventilators across the COVID-19 most affected region through various sources such as government statements, press releases, journals, news & articles, government publications, competitor publications, research surveys, third-party database and other credible publications.
Step 2: Region Segmentation:
Segmentation of the region has been done based on the total number of infected cases in a particular region. Further, obtaining the infected cases, we conducted a detailed secondary analysis to gather the number of ventilator availability in the top 10 most affected countries across the world.
Step 3: Factor Analysis:
After acquiring the historical number of ventilators, we conducted a detailed factor analysis to estimate the current demand of the ventilator that arises due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Further, we conducted Factor analysis using dependent and independent variables such as increasing total cases, increasing demand for critical care beds, growing cases among the geriatric and immunosuppressed population and government support to fetch ventilators, increasing partnerships among medical and non-medical firms to produce ventilators. Through analysis was conducted for demand and supply-side scenario considering top partnerships, merger and acquisition, business expansion, product launches and analyzing the list of start-ups in the ventilator industry across the globe.
Current Market Size Estimate & Forecast
Current Demand Sizing: Based on actionable insights from the above steps, we arrived at the numbers of ventilators available in the COVID-19 most affected countries, key players in the ventilator market and market shares of these players. All the required percentage shares split were determined using the above-mentioned secondary approach and were verified through primary interviews.
Estimation & Forecasting: For demand estimation and forecast, weights were assigned to different factors including drivers & trends, restraints, and opportunities available for the stakeholders. After analyzing these factors, relevant forecasting techniques i.e. Bottom-up approach were applied to arrive at the demand estimation forecast about Dec 2020 for the COVID-19 most affected regions across the world. The research methodology adopted to estimate the market size encompasses:
Market Size and Share Validation
Primary Research: In-depth interviews were conducted with the Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) including top medical professionals, research experts from major universities, health institutes, top Level Executives (CXO/VPs, Sales Head, Marketing Head, Operational Head, and Regional Head, Country Head, etc.) across major regions. Primary research findings were then summarized, and statistical analysis was performed to prove the stated hypothesis. Inputs from primary research were consolidated with secondary findings, hence turning information into actionable insights.
Split of Primary Participants in Different Regions
Market Engineering
Data triangulation technique was employed to complete the overall demand estimation and to arrive at precise statistical numbers for each studied regions.
Main objective of the Global Ventilator Demand Analysis-COVID-19 Impact
The current & future ventilator demand trends were pinpointed in the study. Investors can gain strategic insights to base their discretion for investments from the qualitative and quantitative analysis performed in the study. Current and future demand trends were determined the overall attractiveness of the market at a regional level, providing a platform for the industrial participant to exploit the untapped market to benefit as a first-mover advantage. Other quantitative goals of the studies include:
Analyzing the historical availability, estimation of the current demand and forecasting the future demand of mechanical ventilators due to the sudden breakdown of COVID-19 in the most affected countries around the world were the three major steps undertaken to create and analyze the availability and demand of ventilator arises due to COVID-19 outbreak. Exhaustive secondary research was conducted to collect the historical numbers and estimate the current demand. Secondly, to validate these insights, numerous findings and assumptions were taken into consideration. Moreover, exhaustive primary interviews were also conducted; with healthcare experts and other industry experts across the value chain of the medical device sector. Post assumption and validation of the numbers through primary interviews, we employed a bottom-up approach to forecast the complete demand size of ventilators arises due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Detailed methodology is explained below:
Analysis of Historical Market Size
Step 1: In-Depth Study of Secondary Sources:
Detail secondary study was conducted to obtain the availability of several ventilators across the COVID-19 most affected region through various sources such as government statements, press releases, journals, news & articles, government publications, competitor publications, research surveys, third-party database and other credible publications.
Step 2: Region Segmentation:
Segmentation of the region has been done based on the total number of infected cases in a particular region. Further, obtaining the infected cases, we conducted a detailed secondary analysis to gather the number of ventilator availability in the top 10 most affected countries across the world.
Step 3: Factor Analysis:
After acquiring the historical number of ventilators, we conducted a detailed factor analysis to estimate the current demand of the ventilator that arises due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Further, we conducted Factor analysis using dependent and independent variables such as increasing total cases, increasing demand for critical care beds, growing cases among the geriatric and immunosuppressed population and government support to fetch ventilators, increasing partnerships among medical and non-medical firms to produce ventilators. Through analysis was conducted for demand and supply-side scenario considering top partnerships, merger and acquisition, business expansion, product launches and analyzing the list of start-ups in the ventilator industry across the globe.
Current Market Size Estimate & Forecast
Current Demand Sizing: Based on actionable insights from the above steps, we arrived at the numbers of ventilators available in the COVID-19 most affected countries, key players in the ventilator market and market shares of these players. All the required percentage shares split were determined using the above-mentioned secondary approach and were verified through primary interviews.
Estimation & Forecasting: For demand estimation and forecast, weights were assigned to different factors including drivers & trends, restraints, and opportunities available for the stakeholders. After analyzing these factors, relevant forecasting techniques i.e. Bottom-up approach were applied to arrive at the demand estimation forecast about Dec 2020 for the COVID-19 most affected regions across the world. The research methodology adopted to estimate the market size encompasses:
Market Size and Share Validation
Primary Research: In-depth interviews were conducted with the Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) including top medical professionals, research experts from major universities, health institutes, top Level Executives (CXO/VPs, Sales Head, Marketing Head, Operational Head, and Regional Head, Country Head, etc.) across major regions. Primary research findings were then summarized, and statistical analysis was performed to prove the stated hypothesis. Inputs from primary research were consolidated with secondary findings, hence turning information into actionable insights.
Split of Primary Participants in Different Regions
Market Engineering
Data triangulation technique was employed to complete the overall demand estimation and to arrive at precise statistical numbers for each studied regions.
Main objective of the Global Ventilator Demand Analysis-COVID-19 Impact
The current & future ventilator demand trends were pinpointed in the study. Investors can gain strategic insights to base their discretion for investments from the qualitative and quantitative analysis performed in the study. Current and future demand trends were determined the overall attractiveness of the market at a regional level, providing a platform for the industrial participant to exploit the untapped market to benefit as a first-mover advantage. Other quantitative goals of the studies include: